Your Guide to the Oscars

I did it this year for the first time - saw every single movie nominated for an Oscar this year. A few years ago, I didn't watch the Best Original Song nominees, which I thought couldn't be a problem, and then the song from “The Hunting Ground” was performed during the show and I felt lost. Now, I've done it, which is exciting, although I think we're actually going into what's generally a relative predictable show, with the major exception of the top race, of course. A year ago, “La La Land” was experiencing backlash that would ultimately lead to “Moonlight” winning, although only after the former film was mistakenly announced as Best Picture and the producers were halfway through their acceptance speeches. Though we shouldn't expect such theatrics this year, the mystery of which film will win the top prize is more heightened than it's been in a long time, if not ever. Read more about this in my detailed analysis of that race.

Last year, I was predicting “La La Land” to win eleven trophies (it won six). This year, my highest predicted haul is four. I'm writing these final thoughts just after watching the Independent Spirit Awards, which aren't actually a helpful precursor, but where “Lady Bird” won Best Screenplay and then lost to “Get Out” for Best Feature, a film that won Best Director also but in a field with none of the same other nominees as the Oscars. I guess I was holding out hope that “Call Me By Your Name,” my initial prediction for Best Picture way back when, could show up with a surprise win to really throw the race into turmoil, but no such luck. The Best Picture race is still a huge wild card - again, read my detailed analysis, and with it the Best Original Screenplay race remains unpredictable.

Honestly, the only other races that are up in the air are some of the technical ones, which could result in sweeps for either “Dunkirk” or “The Shape of Water,” Best Original Song, Best Documentary, and Best Foreign Film. I guess that's more than usual, even if the acting races are all sewn up.

I've tried to cover the Oscars more intensively than ever before, and it's been quite the awards season. I'm hoping that the two movies I like - “The Shape of Water” and “Lady Bird” - eclipse the two I don't - “Get Out” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - and the only saving grace is that it's going to be impossible to know how it all turns out because of the unpredictable and competitive nature of the race. Let's hope at least that the wealth is spread in a cool and affirming way. I'd love to see Willem Dafoe score as a way to honor the criminally underrepresented “The Florida Project,” and for “The Big Sick” to shock with a win over four Best Picture nominees for its superb screenplay, but I'm not counting on either of those things happening.

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Your Guide to the Oscars

Your Guide to the Oscars

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Your Guide to the Oscars

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Your Guide to the Oscars

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